Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not happy during the week leading up to the latest NATO summit. Zelenskyy also surprised the leaders of NATO and his fellow Ukrainians by saying that he would skip the talks in Vilnius, Lithuania, because there was no reason for him to go if it would not benefit Ukraine. Republicans, immediately used this as an excuse to rush to Fox News and announcing Zelenskyy uppity.
For a while on Tuesday, it looked as if there was a rift between Ukraine and NATO over the insistence that Ukraine would have “many years” after the war before the country could be invited to NATO.
But Zelenskyy and President Joe Biden sat down at the same time, and following the meeting, everything seems fine. More than good, in fact, as NATO announced that it is supporting Ukraine and Zelenskyy celebrated the “great success” of the meeting.
And, fortunately, Vilnius is not the only place where Ukraine is doing well.
Zelenskyy’s anger was linked to concerns about Ukraine’s ability to continue as a full member of NATO after the war. Almost every nation that has joined the alliance has done so under different laws, as various member states have imposed or removed restrictions and raised or eased concerns.
Zelenskyy has made it clear that he knows that NATO is about to grant membership to Ukraine when it means immediate war with Russia. Raising the Ukrainian flag in Brussels means that Ukraine has to fight against the illegal and illegal invasion of Vladimir Putin without the benefit of troops from NATO member states.
But what almost got caught in the throat of the Ukrainian president was the “multi-year” part of the Ukrainian plan. Zelenskyy saw the plan as not only leaving the door open to the risk of a Russian attack, but as an unclear score line, which could lead to Ukraine’s permanent exit from NATO. What they want instead is a list of things that are timeless, so that Ukraine knows everything it needs to achieve and works as quickly as possible. He also wants NATO to go ahead and order it now, even if Ukraine doesn’t complete the project until later.
How all the problems were solved is unclear at the moment, but Zelenskyy was very happy after speaking with Biden. Whatever his concerns are, they seem to have been answered. Polish President Andrzej Duda seems to think that NATO is on the verge of collapse, but we will have to wait a day or two for all the negotiations to be properly translated into a signed statement.
Zelenskyy: “I think that by the end of this meeting, we have a great cooperation from our leaders and guarantees of security – that is the success of this meeting, I think so. It is my opinion.”
This new excitement may include promises to supply the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets to Ukraine.
It is reasonable to say that Ukraine needs more weapons on all levels, but one of the reasons why they need ATACMS is the simple cost of hitting long-range targets. A storm shadow cruise missile worth about $3 million. Ukraine has already fired 50 to 60 of these missiles, which may represent the bulk of its inventory.
ATACMS is relatively inexpensive, with the latest models still around $1 million each. But the US has built thousands of them, they have a variety of Ukrainians, and they should be available quickly. There were already reports in the past two weeks that the US was planning to send ATACMS to Ukraine, so it’s a good bet that Biden’s ideas will quickly translate into missiles on the way.
Bakhmut district
For the past two weeks, the Ukrainian army has been working towards the main town of Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut. The town is important, but not as important as the mountains to the west. Controlling those mountains provides a good strategic location overlooking a large part of southern Bakhmut.
Ukraine moved into those mountains at the end of the week and has now moved on, occupying the northern part of Klishchiivka and sending more troops into the valley between the two mountains. Russia tried to take action in the town on Tuesday but it seems that it didn’t work, several Russian weapons were lost.
According to the latest reports, Russian troops are stuck in the eastern part of Klishchiivka after failing to stop the Ukrainian troops marching through most of the town. The Ukrainians are setting up firing positions on top of the western mountains, but it is unclear at this point whether their units are moving north to Bakhmut or east to Opytne.
Some Ukrainian violence has been reported south of Klishchiivka in Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka. Fighting in the area included the destruction of at least two Russian T-90 tanks.
Northwest of Bakhmut, Ukraine continues to expand its control over Berkhivka and has continued to Yahidne. There was one report that Ukraine had seized “all the high ground” west of Bakhmut, which meant that they had seized the mountains around Dubovo-Vasylivka. If true, this part of Russia’s dominance could quickly collapse.
When Ukraine returned to Berkhivka at the end of last week and began to control it in this way, it was a good sign that Russia is struggling to provide guns in the area, because the guns were in control and in the past they forced Ukraine to retreat. from Berkhivka region.
In the west, there are reports of violence near Zaliznyanske. Ukraine was pushed out of this region by Wagner’s forces on March 28. Now they are back. The struggle in this area is said to be heavy, with Ukraine having a vague “slight success”.
To the north, the village of Sakko i Vantsetti lives up to its nickname. They say they are “surrounded.” Both the village and Mykolaivka are said to be surrounded by Ukrainian troops while the Russians continue to remain inside. This appears to be part of a larger push from the north that has Ukrainian forces advancing towards Soledar in three separate lines. Russian troops in the area are said to have moved to Krasnopolivka.
An unconfirmed report has the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of Ukraine located 2.5 kilometers north of the Soledar salt mine. Wagner’s army took Soledar in the first days of the year. For Ukrainian troops to return to the town would be a major change in Russia’s strategy in the Bakhmut region, putting Ukraine to attack Bakhmut from three sides or surround the city and wait.
To the east of Bakhmut, Russia has prepared a defense zone similar to the one in the south, so it is not clear where the war will go from here. But freeing up space in front of the defense would be a big boost.
Actions of Russia
Despite losing ground around Bakhmut and to the south, Russia continues to exert considerable force at the northern end of the line, from Kreminna to Kupyansk. Another report says that Russia now has over 120,000 men in the region. They say they are fighting northeast of Kupyansk, with Russian troops trying to capture the town of Lyman Pershyi. Russia also advanced well past Dibrova west of Kreminna and came within a few kilometers of Torske. Reports that the Russians reached Torske, or took the town, are incorrect.
This makes the Russian army about 15 kilometers away from Lyman, the big one. However, the Russian advance seems to be limited in one direction rather than a circular one, and it seems that, for the moment, they have been thrown in front of Torske.
Russia is said to have previously attempted an attack west of Svatove but to no avail. Russian Telegram sources indicate that Russia’s goal is to “reach the river,” possibly the Oskil River, in three locations: Kupyansk, Borove, and west of Lyman. At the moment, nothing seems likely.
Southern Front
Russian sources, including Rybar, continue to say that Ukraine withdrew from P’yatykhatky. Ukrainian sources say they don’t know what the Russians are talking about. Russia has released some videos, but since they all seem to show a fight between P’yatykhatky and Zherebyanky, nothing is really certain. In fact, Ukraine seems to have made little progress in Zherebyanky.
As “Ukraine is stopped in Bakhmut” the message that Russian sources repeat yesterday, this seems like a piece of Russian copy.
There are also reports that Ukraine is close to Russian sites for Robotyne, although not without additional costs, including five to six Bradley fighting vehicles. Reports of lost Bradleys are almost always “but the crew got out safely,” which is fine, but Robotyne is probably the most expensive place on the map.
Speaking of which, expect a new map if there is a confirmed release for these areas tomorrow.
Video games are often considered “pay to win.” Russian officials now put their soldiers in “pay-for-living” positions.
Zelenskyy draws a simple line.