The last few changes (Here and Here), I have discussed the reasons why Ukraine has failed to issue an immediate lethal threat to the Russian military in its current opposition. This does not mean that Ukraine has failed. It just means it had to change course, and it’s going slowly. But they are still putting great pressure on the Russian lines, slowly pushing forward.
In short, Ukraine hoped that a show of force would quickly destroy Russian lines and break their fighting spirit. That did not happen. The same weapons that have crippled Russia’s military operations — mines, drones, anti-tank missiles, and anti-tank missiles — aided the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine has also been hampered by the inadequacy of combined arms training, so that they ignored the main advantage of their new weapons of the West – the ability to see at night – and attack during the day, in front of the enemy. And even so, he couldn’t get rid of it. The jointed arms are strong, and it was impossible to imagine that he could study for a few months.
However, there is a big difference between the failure of Russia and Ukraine. Russia, to this day, continues to suffer heavy losses because it is slow to learn from its military tragedies. Ukraine has had a major loss (the first one, on the way to Robotyne), and a small one for a week or so, and that’s it. Instead of following failure and more failure, Ukraine is rapidly changing and improving.
First of all, this means that there are no more weapons. It is very difficult to go through the list of mines, drones, missiles, and weapons. Instead, Ukraine is relying heavily on slow-moving troops, minefields, clearing Russian trenches and heavy tree lines, and using artillery and tank fire to support this. It’s not a control battle, but it seems to be doing the job. We don’t see many videos of damaged Ukrainian weapons or serious Ukrainian casualties. Every time Russian propagandists restore photos and videos of one of the two lost items, it means that Ukraine is doing well.
At the moment, there are three stages in operation, to say the least. In the southeast, Ukraine is pushing into Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk in three different directions:
The left arrow points to Melitopol, which is the smartest city on the whole map, and Russia knows it. Look at all the sections on the defense sections on the way to Melitopol, outside the map below and to the left. And so far, Ukraine does not seem to have reached the yellow lines anywhere.
Ukraine they went a little further into the villages this side before you lose interest or resist too much. Even if Russian Telegram is to be believed (I wouldn’t put too much money on it), Ukraine got the better of this maneuver tonight.
The middle arrow is in Robotyne, where Ukraine’s biggest losses were recorded. Yet Ukraine continues, and the Russian Telegram is filled with reports of a large-scale attack on Ukraine itself – disrespectful, of course. This is the second best route, as it is on the way to Tokmak, circled in yellow on the map above. Russia is surrounded by security because of its importance.
Why is Tokmak important? Most of the Russian supply along this front passes through Tokmak. RO37 did one of them explains about Tokmak. Go and see.
Ukraine should not reach Tokmak to seriously threaten Russian weapons. Measuring from north of Robotyne to south of Tokmak, the distance is 27 kilometers. Tokmak is already within range of GMLRS rockets, but the rockets are rare and cost more than $100,000 each. But the M795 rocket launcher has… Not cheap rounds, but larger 155mm shells, which cost about $8,000 each, still a fraction of the cost of the GMLRS rocket. Much of Tokmak’s use as a weapons base could be seriously compromised by Ukrainian military equipment located a few kilometers behind Robotyne, which is located in Ukraine.
The third route, the most easterly one on the map above, is to the port of Mariupol. This is also the most encouraging exercise in Ukraine. Not only did the Ukrainian forces make a respectable route, but as far as you can on the map, this side has only one line of defense.
In the north from the map, Ukraine is going to the north and south of Bakhmut, and has taken the high ground around the west of the city.
Just as I didn’t understand why Russia went to such great lengths to take over the town, I don’t understand why Ukraine is putting so much effort into retaking it. It’s really unimportant. I think Ukraine is making progress around here because they can. Russia has heavily defended the southeast, so by threatening Russia’s beloved Bakhmut, taken at such a high price, perhaps Ukraine is hoping to draw in Russian reserves.
Further north, Russia has been making offensives around Kreminna and Kupiansk.remember that city?). The effort has been so extensive that it may be necessary for Ukraine to take action to use it in opposition. War is often a game of chess.
The Russian media are not very smart, are they? Here is RT Margarita Simonyan’s headline:
Note, this “famine” is not in Europe. Ukrainian crops destined for European markets arrive there by rail. This famine is in Africa.
Russia wants Africa to starve, because then, perhaps, the West will attack Russia.
Russia’s problem is that the West does not care about Africa. That has been the problem all along.
Russia has never learned the adage that you can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. Their lies are not about working together with their allies for the betterment of all. For Russia, that is weakness. It’s all threats and nuclear weapons blah blah blah. For example, one of them had a very good idea that the West will get the message that Russia is not a national joke if – this – it blows up the North Pole.
The exchange is very interesting:
The first person: We can show [nuclear weapons] at the North Pole.
The second person: To win this war, are you saying we will blow up the North Pole?
The first person: Why are you twisting my words?
And that was not all. Here’s another interesting exchange:
The first person: We must move to non-traditional ways of using nuclear weapons, including heavy nuclear weapons.
The second person: Application? Using nuclear weapons?
The first person: I am not saying to use it.
The second person: You said “use them”
The first person: You obviously made a mistake. I wasn’t talking about using it.
Of course he said to “use them”! These comedians have nothing.
But maybe he should be careful. A report and a member of the State Duma (the Russian parliament) is asking the authorities to “adopting methods of suppressing people who are insane and impossible to talk to.” It warns that “an army of people who know how to carry guns is being formed around Girkin-Strelkov.”
The report was written in Wagner’s presence, but this was all that was used as an excuse to fix the plan, which led to the arrest of Igor Girkin this week. But here’s the thing, the report doesn’t stop there, it calls for action against the propagandists who are “causing chaos.” Among them? Simonyan, the head of RT who was enjoying a great hunger at the top. Also mentioned is Vladimir Solovyov, who has a daily radio show and an evening TV show and is frequently quoted for his fascist-eliminationist rhetoric.
These are all figures that have created a large following in promoting and criticizing the war effort from a national liberation perspective. As the report puts it, “Freedmen and hipsters are polluted and have left the territory of the Russian Federation and cannot play a major role” in destroying the Russian people. It is the patriots who are at the greatest risk: “For example, in the program ‘Evenings with Vladimir Solovyov’ there is always abuse by the big government groups. Speakers always push the big ones for various mistakes in their activities.