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LONDON – Brace yourself: England will get not one, but three elections on Thursday.
It is a difficult time for Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose party is they are struggling in national elections and fighting for stability in all three seats: Uxbridge and Ruislip; Selby and Ainsty; and Somerton and Frome.
And it is the first time England has experienced three simultaneous parliamentary votes outside of a general election since November 2012.
Although each race is unique, there are many lessons to be learned from previous elections.
Alia Middleton, psychologist and senior lecturer at the University of Surrey, analyzed 148 elections held between 1979 and 2022. His message? Don’t expect a lot of people to come and visit – and watch the results of insults and arguments.
Elections in summary elections tend to be smaller than those of military officials. According to Middleton’s in the analysis, the number of people who attended the short elections reached 49.3 percent – compared to the people who reached the same seats of 68.3 percent.
Thursday’s vote is not without controversy – but don’t think that will increase the numbers heading to the polls.
In Uxbridge and Ruislip, voters are being asked to replace Boris JohnsonA former Prime Minister who quit as an adviser on the eve of a scathing report on her handling of the Partygate scandal.
Johnson ally Nigel Adams recently resigned from his seat in Selby and Ainsty. And, in Somerton and Frome, voters are being asked to nominate someone to replace David Warburton, who resigned following his resignation. allegations of misconduct.
But the irony is that, the repeated election that is happening because of confusion can result in a very low number.
Middleton says the reasons for this are unclear, but the most common cause of snap elections in history is the death of a sitting MP.
“So if a candidate dies, maybe you feel sorry for their party,” he said. “But once it’s in people’s behavior, then it becomes a plague on your house. It’s a good idea to see it as ugly – and people think ‘oh [politicians] it’s all the same.’”
When MPs start acting “outrageous,” he said, “it just confirms people’s worst fears” — and that could keep them at home.
But even if the number of people is low, elections that are held due to riots are very difficult for the party to protect.
According to Middleton’s analysis, nearly half (46.2 percent) of all elections triggered by scandal during that time resulted in the seat changing hands. In contrast, more than a third (35.2 percent) of the lucky votes that resulted from the deaths saw seats change hands.
Although Thursday looks open to Labor and the Liberal Democrats, Middleton warns that there could be hidden opposition parties to the removal of MPs before the election.
Middleton points to various studies on MP spending in Britain in 2008 which show, “in most cases, [it] it did not affect the way people voted” when the election was held in 2010.
“Part of the argument is that bad-mannered MPs have already come down and started the elections,” he said. “So maybe by getting rid of the Tories who aren’t doing well right now, they might be able to keep a few seats next year.”
Recent polls show the Conservatives are in for a tough time on Thursday.
Recent polls by JL partners put Labour’s Danny Beales eight points clear of the Conservatives’ Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge and Ruislip. JL Partners also sees Labor on course to win Selby and Ainsty.
And although there has been no public voting in Somerton and Frome, Ben Walker, journalist and co-founder of the polling association Britain Elects, he said The Liberal Democrats must do something “very good” to avoid taking the seat of Somerset from the Tories.
Middleton admits that Thursday could lead to a loss of interest for the Conservatives. “That’s the way the political landscape is changing and the Conservatives can’t do anything to stop it,” he said.
But Labor and the Lib Dems shouldn’t be breaking out the champagne corks just yet.
If he wins, he will need to take steps to ensure he has a chance with voters in the short run before the election. “You have to change the local news.” Middleton said. “You have to come with the luggage.”